Casino Calculator
Theoretical Loss & Comp Calculator
Enter your average bet, how many decisions you play per hour, how long you play and which game. The calculator multiplies the total amount wagered by the house edge to give your theoretical loss, the figure casinos use to rate play, and shows what comps that theo typically supports.
Comp estimate by reinvestment rate
Reinvestment rates differ widely between casinos and loyalty programs; about 20–40% of theo is a commonly cited range. Comps are always smaller than the theoretical loss, so they never turn play into a profit on average.
How to Use the Calculator
- 1Pick a game and bet. Baccarat and roulette fill in a typical pace (about 70 hands or 35 spins per hour); for craps and sic bo, enter your own.
- 2Enter your average bet in dollars. If your bets vary, use the average; casinos rate players the same way.
- 3Enter decisions per hour (hands, spins or rolls that settle your bet) and the hours you expect to play.
- 4Read the results: the total wagered (also called action or handle), the theoretical loss for the session and per hour, and comp estimates at 10%, 20%, 30% and 40% reinvestment.
The formula
- Total wagered = average bet × decisions per hour × hours
- Theoretical loss = total wagered × house edge
- Comp estimate = theoretical loss × reinvestment rate
Theoretical loss is not what you actually lose on a given night. It is the average loss the house edge implies for the amount you bet, whatever the cards or the wheel actually did. Casinos use it because it measures the value of a player's action without the noise of short-term luck, and most comp systems budget rewards as a share of it.
The share returned as comps, often called the reinvestment rate, differs a great deal between casinos, programs and player tiers. About 20–40% of theo is a commonly cited range, so the calculator shows 10% to 40% for comparison. It is an estimate, not a promise of what any casino will offer.
Every house edge in the list was checked by calculation: baccarat from exact 8-deck probabilities (Banker about 1.06%, Player about 1.24%, Tie at 8 to 1 about 14.36%), roulette as 1/37 and 2/38, French roulette even-money bets with La Partage as 1/74, the craps Pass Line as 7/495 and sic bo Big/Small as 1/36. Pace varies a lot with how busy the table is.
Worked Examples
A four-hour baccarat session
$25 a hand on Banker at about 70 hands an hour for four hours is $7,000 wagered. At a 1.06% house edge the theoretical loss is about $74, or roughly $19 an hour. At 20–40% reinvestment, that supports roughly $15–$30 in comps.
European vs American roulette
$25 a spin at 35 spins an hour for four hours is $3,500 wagered. Theo is about $95 at a single-zero European wheel and about $184 at a double-zero American wheel. Even-money bets at a French table with La Partage halve the European figure to about $47.
The cost of the Tie bet
The same $7,000 of baccarat action placed on Tie at 8 to 1 has a theoretical loss of about $1,005, more than 13 times the Banker figure. A higher theo earns bigger comp estimates, but the comps never make up the difference.
Reference Tables
| Game / bet | House edge | Theo |
|---|---|---|
| Baccarat — Banker | 1.06% | $106 |
| Baccarat — Player | 1.24% | $124 |
| Baccarat — Tie (pays 8 to 1) | 14.36% | $1,436 |
| European roulette | 2.70% | $270 |
| French roulette — even-money bets with La Partage | 1.35% | $135 |
| American roulette | 5.26% | $526 |
| Craps — Pass Line | 1.41% | $141 |
| Sic Bo — Big / Small | 2.78% | $278 |
$100 a hand for 100 hands is $10,000 wagered. Every house edge here was checked by calculation (baccarat from exact 8-deck probabilities).
| Game / bet | Per hour | Theo | Comps 20–40% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baccarat — Banker | 70 | $74 | $15–$30 |
| Baccarat — Player | 70 | $86 | $17–$35 |
| Baccarat — Tie (pays 8 to 1) | 70 | $1,005 | $201–$402 |
| European roulette | 35 | $95 | $19–$38 |
| French roulette — even-money bets with La Partage | 35 | $47 | $9–$19 |
| American roulette | 35 | $184 | $37–$74 |
“Per hour” is decisions per hour: about 70 hands for baccarat and 35 spins for roulette are typical paces; a crowded table is slower. Comp estimates use 20–40% of theo; actual reinvestment varies widely by casino and program.
What the Calculator Does Not Cover
- —It gives the long-run average, not a forecast. A single session can end far above or below it; the swings are variance.
- —Your actual pace depends on the table, the dealer and how many players are seated. Halving the decisions per hour halves the theo.
- —Some casinos rate play with their own house-edge figures and pace assumptions, and may estimate your pace from time seated rather than counting every hand, so their number can differ from yours.
- —The comp figures are estimates based on a commonly cited range. Programs set their own rules and may weight games, tiers and promotions differently.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you calculate theoretical loss?
Multiply your average bet by decisions per hour, by hours played and by the house edge. $25 a hand on baccarat Banker at 70 hands an hour for four hours is $7,000 wagered, and at about 1.06% the theoretical loss is about $74.
What percentage of theoretical loss do casinos give back in comps?
It varies widely by casino, program and tier; about 20–40% of theo is a commonly cited range. On a theoretical loss of about $74, that is roughly $15–$30 in comps.
Do games with a higher house edge earn more comps?
At the same bet, yes, because the theo is higher, but the expected loss rises much faster than the comps. $25 a spin for four hours at 35 spins an hour has a theo of about $184 at American roulette against about $95 at European roulette. Choosing a worse game to earn comps costs more than it returns.
Is my theoretical loss the same on a night I win?
Yes. Theoretical loss depends only on how much you bet and the house edge, not on the result. Casinos generally base comps on your rated theo whether you won or lost that trip.
What is the difference between theoretical loss and actual loss?
Actual loss is what left your pocket in one session. Theoretical loss is the average the house edge implies for the same play. Over a long period, many players' actual results cluster around their combined theo, which is why casinos plan with it.
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